On 9 September 2025, Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister, was sentenced to twelve months in jail, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. This development also indirectly affects Thailand’s casino legalisation debate as the Shinawatra family, long-time champions of Integrated Resorts (IRs), exit the political stage. The discourse surrounding the development of Thai integrated resorts is now uncoupled from the Shinawatra political dynasty, which had been a polarising force.
During his tenure from 2001 to 2006, Thaksin attempted to introduce casinos in Thailand, a move that ultimately culminated in a military coup. Fast forward to August 2023, after a 15-year self-imposed exile, Thaksin emerged as a significant proponent for IRs under the premiership of his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. However, Paetongtarn’s premiership was short-lived as she was suspended in July 2023 and later removed by the Constitutional Court in August due to a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen amidst a military conflict.
James Kaplan, a Bangkok-based hospitality advisor, commented on the situation, suggesting that Thailand is at a crossroads. “This is a fresh beginning for Thailand,” he observed, noting that the nation now has the opportunity to approach integrated resorts with a fresh, possibly more balanced perspective. Despite this optimism, the new prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, has expressed opposition to casino development. He has promised parliamentary elections by early next year, though they are not legally required until June 2027.
Kaplan remarked that the gaming legislation, while not dead, is essentially in a coma, likely to awaken post-election. The intricate political atmosphere means that the fate of casino legalisation is uncertain, subject to the shifting priorities of Thailand’s political landscape.
Ben Kiatkwankul, a partner at Maverick Consulting Group, highlighted that while there might be attempts to reintroduce the casino legalisation agenda with revised regulations, changing political dynamics could easily push the issue aside. The integrated resorts debate is expected to remain a tool for political and economic manoeuvring.
In the midst of this complex environment, Hard Rock International, a top-tier global casino operator, has withdrawn its interest in pursuing IR projects in Thailand. James Allen, Chairman of Hard Rock International, expressed his company’s disinterest, citing “instability” as the primary reason. The company had previously considered locations such as Phuket for potential developments.
Thailand’s economic situation, characterised by declining tourism numbers, a strengthening currency, and increasing debt, presents a case for entertainment complexes, the local term for integrated resorts. The challenge lies in rebuilding the consensus that once garnered near-unanimous parliamentary support for casino legalisation in March of the previous year.
Yet, the proposal faced backlash. Citing a Thai proverb, “ten fires don’t compare to the harm of a single act of gambling,” Kiatkwankul noted that the near-unanimous approval in March only fuelled speculation of behind-the-scenes political manoeuvrings.
The Shinawatra family’s involvement in IR policy became more pronounced when Paetongtarn took over as prime minister, elevating IRs to a cornerstone of her Pheu Thai Party government. However, this move deepened public distrust amid her political troubles and Bhumjaithai’s withdrawal from the ruling coalition.
With the Shinawatra family now sidelined, the IR issue is poised for a reset. Julian Spindler, a corporate communications consultant in Bangkok, believes Thaksin and his party are significantly damaged. However, foreign operators should use this period to educate the Thai public on regulatory environments similar to Singapore’s.
Public misconceptions about casinos have been rampant, with fears of them leading to problem gambling and crime. However, jurisdictions like Singapore have demonstrated the opposite effect, implementing programmes like Gamblers Anonymous funded by casinos.
Kaplan noted that problem gaming is not unique to Thailand and that countries like Singapore have balanced tourism benefits, tax revenues, and job creation against potential adverse effects. Despite delays in gaming legislation, gambling remains a reality, often taking place outside of Thailand’s borders.
A study estimates Thailand’s underground gaming economy at over US$30 billion annually, including domestic and border operations and online gambling. Legalised gaming’s potential to capture this revenue depends on the regulatory framework. The Pheu Thai government proposed a stringent entry requirement for Thai nationals, highlighting conflicts in Thailand’s objectives for casino legalisation.
The proposed THB50 million entry requirement would limit casino access to a tiny fraction of Thai citizens, potentially satisfying underground gaming sectors while discouraging international operator investment. This scenario would paradoxically reduce the attractiveness of IRs for tourists and potential tax revenue.
A draft regulatory scheme places prime ministerial and cabinet authority at the top but lacks international best practices and social safeguards. Without consulting international experts, Thai officials risk neglecting essential regulatory components.
Harmen Brenninkmeijer, managing partner at Global Chain Ltd, suggests that regulations need to be sound and transparent, with the potential for a gaming board to provide necessary oversight. David Leppo echoes the sentiment, advocating for a regulatory committee of gaming professionals to create a legal framework that reassures major operators about investing in Thailand.
The political turmoil and unresolved issues have led many to believe Thailand might abandon casino legalisation. Yet, the factors that prompted consideration of IRs are more pressing than ever. Thailand’s tourism sector currently occupies a middle ground between affordable destinations like Cambodia and high-end ones like Singapore.
As of early September, foreign visitor arrivals had decreased, with significant drops in expenditure, particularly from Chinese tourists. The tourism industry’s decline, which contributes significantly to GDP, is a concern for policymakers in light of an already struggling economy.
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow at a modest 2% this year, lagging behind other ASEAN countries. The Thai stock market has underperformed compared to regional benchmarks, highlighting economic challenges.
Gaming taxes could provide a much-needed boost to Thailand’s treasury, supporting ambitious economic stimulus plans. Public debt is a growing concern, with a recent budget projecting a significant deficit.
Kaplan argues that integrated resorts could be part of a broader solution to rejuvenate the Thai economy, offering substantial foreign investment, employment, and tax revenue. While gaming isn’t the sole solution, IRs are a component of revitalising the critical tourism industry.
Phuket, in particular, stands out as an ideal location for an IR, catering to an upscale clientele. Leading Thai business groups remain interested in investing, with the potential for local ownership to keep economic benefits within the country.
Ultimately, the fate of IRs in Thailand hinges on the outcome of the next election. Despite the lack of clear political support, the possibility remains that lawmakers will, once again, embrace integrated resorts.
Topics: Thailand · Singapore · China · Payments · Gambling Taxes · Responsible Gambling
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