Macau casinos generated a gross gaming revenue of MOP$18.3 billion (US$2.28 billion) in September, based on the latest data released by the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. This represents a 6% rise compared to September 2024, although it fell short of analysts’ expected increase of 9%. The revenue, however, saw a 17.5% decline from August, which had achieved a post-pandemic peak of MOP22.15 billion.
The month of September traditionally experiences a slowdown in Macau after the bustling July-August holiday season. Acknowledging this pattern, the local government initiated a 13-week stimulus campaign beginning on 1 September, set to run until 30 November. This initiative aims to boost consumer spending by offering residents the chance to win e-vouchers when making purchases at participating businesses, thereby counteracting the anticipated drop in activity.
Adding to the challenges faced in September was Typhoon Ragasa, a powerful storm that forced the closure of casinos for over 30 hours on the 24th and 25th. The month’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) ranked as the second-lowest of 2025, trailing only January. Vitaly Umansky from Seaport Research Partners commented on the situation, suggesting the typhoon might have hampered growth by around 6%-7%, proposing that a 12%-13% growth could have been feasible otherwise.
Despite the subdued performance in September, optimism surrounds the forthcoming Golden Week holiday. Starting with the National Day on the first Wednesday of October, the festivities are expected to invigorate the city’s economy.
The Macau Government Tourism Office anticipates that the city will host approximately 1.2 million visitors during the eight-day celebration. Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau predict that Macau casinos could witness daily GGR figures of MOP1.05 billion throughout the holiday period.
This positive momentum is likely to extend beyond Golden Week, buoyed by special events such as the NBA China Games scheduled from 10-12 October at the Venetian Macao. This event features a showdown between the Brooklyn Nets and the Phoenix Suns and will include a special guest appearance by basketball legend Shaquille O’Neal. “Increased marketing and the continued ease of money outflows, along with strong visa issuance, are expected to drive growth,” Umansky noted, emphasizing that continued entertainment events will play a crucial role in sustaining demand.
Looking toward the future, there are signs pointing to significant growth extending into 2026-27. A potential trade agreement between the US and China, which could materialize by November, is anticipated to have a cascading positive effect on Macau, according to Umansky. Any uptick in Chinese consumer confidence is likely to encourage spending and travel to Macau, aiding the recovery of the overnight base mass segment.
Seaport Research Partners projects a 13% increase in GGR for October, with an overall annual growth of 8.4% for 2025. The fourth quarter is expected to outperform the first half, with a projected growth rate of 12.4% compared to 8.3% in the initial six months. Additionally, they forecast a 7% annual growth rate for 2026-2027, driven by factors such as hotel occupancy rates, a more robust base mass recovery, continued ease of money flows, and rising consumer confidence.
However, not all analysts are equally optimistic. Some caution that external economic factors, such as fluctuations in the global economy and potential geopolitical tensions, could pose challenges to sustaining growth at the predicted levels. These analysts stress the importance of strategic planning and diversification in Macau’s economic activities to mitigate risks.
In conclusion, while September’s performance was not as robust as hoped, the structural supports and events planned for the near future position Macau for potential growth. The resilience shown by the city’s gaming sector amid adverse conditions, coupled with strategic initiatives and anticipated market developments, suggests a promising outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond. As always, the balance between seizing opportunities and managing risks will be crucial for Macau’s continued success.