Poland is contemplating the liberalization of its iGaming market, a move that stands in contrast to the current trend across Europe where countries are tightening gambling regulations. This discussion comes at a time when many European nations are facing declining channelization and a rise in unlicensed gambling activities, prompting them to enforce stricter advertising rules and revisit tax regulations. In Poland, however, there is a growing debate about whether the existing regulatory framework, which includes a state monopoly on online casinos, should be reformed to better address market dynamics.
The current Polish gambling landscape is characterized by a hybrid system that permits land-based casinos, bingo halls, and slot machines to operate under specific licenses. Meanwhile, online sports betting is open to private operators but is subject to a 12% turnover tax. Crucially, the online casino sector is monopolized by Total Casino, run by the state-owned Totalizator Sportowy. This setup is increasingly being questioned by industry stakeholders who argue that it fails to effectively control the market.
Piotr Palutkiewicz, general director of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, highlights the challenges of maintaining a monopoly, noting the difficulty in eliminating offshore operators. Despite maintaining a blacklist of approximately 55,000 banned domains, the effort is likened to a “cat-and-mouse game.” This view was echoed at the European Economic Congress, where the monopoly was criticized as outdated. Zdzislaw Kostrubala, president of Poland’s gambling trade association, Graj Legalnie, labeled the monopoly as an “anachronism.”
Statistics underscore these concerns: around 40% of Poland’s online casino market is dominated by unlicensed operators, with 83% of online casino players reportedly holding accounts on illegal platforms. Despite efforts to reduce this, growth in channelization has stalled, with the monopoly’s market share remaining stable even as the overall market grows by approximately 11% annually.
The political climate in Poland further complicates reform efforts. Historical events, such as the 2009 gambling scandal, have left a lingering wariness among politicians regarding gambling legislation. This scandal, which involved allegations of political influence over gambling tax legislation, resulted in a swift move towards more restrictive laws. The event has since made lawmakers cautious about engaging with the gambling industry, fearing accusations of improper lobbying or corruption.
Marek Płota, from the law firm RM Legal, notes that only the far-right party Konfederacja currently supports liberalization as part of its political agenda. Given that Konfederacja secured around 15% of the vote in the last election, they might influence future policy after the 2027 elections, but meaningful legislative changes are unlikely until then.
Industry operators, however, advocate for a liberalized market, citing economic benefits. Superbet, a notable player since 2020, illustrates this potential, having risen to become the second-largest operator by NGR within Poland. Despite operating under one of Europe’s most restrictive regulatory frameworks, which includes a hefty 12% turnover tax on sports betting, Superbet reports a strong market with projected growth, particularly with events like the upcoming World Cup.
Nevertheless, the restrictive environment and high taxation are seen as contributors to the persistent grey market. Current sports betting channelization in Poland is relatively high, estimated between 70% and 80%, aided by allowances for advertising through platforms like Google and influencers. In contrast, the online casino sector struggles, with an estimated 40% of activity conducted illegally.
For advocates of reform, this is indicative of a system that has reached its limits. They argue that opening the market could enhance channelization. However, convincing policymakers remains challenging, especially given the regulatory retightening observed in Western European markets.
The Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which includes Poland, is often analyzed collectively due to shared characteristics such as rapid digital adoption and economic growth. Yet, regulatory practices vary widely across these countries, with some embracing competitive licensing systems, while others maintain monopolies in certain areas. Poland’s unique position within this spectrum adds another layer to the debate.
As Poland’s iGaming market continues to expand, the key question is who stands to benefit. For the time being, without significant reform, the status quo likely remains, leaving the state monopoly, licensed operators, and the offshore sector in a complex interplay. The ongoing dialogue, however, suggests that regulatory adjustments may eventually emerge, driven by market realities and political developments.
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