As Latin American countries face critical elections in 2026, the gambling industry is monitoring potential shifts in political power that could significantly impact regulatory frameworks and market conditions. With elections approaching in Brazil, Peru, and Colombia, the sector is keen to see whether a shift toward right-wing governments might create a more favorable environment for gambling operations.
In Brazil, the stakes are particularly high. Since the regulation of its online gambling market last year, there have been attempts to impose stricter advertising rules and higher taxes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took office in January 2023, has approved a gradual tax increase, setting a rate of 15% on gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 2028. This move has stirred debate, especially after a proposed 15% tax on deposits was temporarily removed from the Antifaction Bill under political pressure.
The political climate in Brazil remains tense. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, although barred from running due to legal issues, continues to exert substantial influence, notably through his son, Flavio Bolsonaro, who is considered a potential right-wing candidate. The conservative wing, closely linked with the evangelical community, presents both opportunities and challenges for the gambling industry. While right-wing politicians may favor a business-friendly approach, their ties to religious groups who oppose gambling could complicate policy decisions.
In Colombia, the situation is somewhat more stable. Following a tumultuous period in 2025, where a 19% VAT was temporarily imposed on online gambling to fund social efforts, the Constitutional Court has since suspended the tax. Although this tax may resurface in future discussions, especially as the presidential election on May 31 approaches, Colombia’s earlier regulatory actions have helped establish a relatively steady gambling sector. Juan Camilo Carrasco of Sora Lawyers notes that while the spotlight was briefly on the industry, its contributions to the health sector provide a buffer against drastic policy shifts.
President Gustavo Petro’s administration has been marked by stalled reforms due to a lack of congressional support. Despite his leftist agenda, Petro has been unable to push through significant changes, and the upcoming elections might see a shift towards right-wing parties, which some analysts believe would foster a more conducive environment for operators.
In Peru, political instability underscores the gambling sector’s challenges. The reintroduction of a 1% consumption tax after its initial removal caused concern among operators. The government’s fluctuating stance raises questions about its understanding of the gambling industry’s economics, with potential regulatory changes on the horizon.
Peru’s political scene is equally volatile. The presidency has been marked by successive impeachments, with interim President Jose Maria Balcazar—an unexpected choice given his leftist background—currently in office. This political instability, coupled with persistent crime and corruption issues, influences public sentiment and may steer the electorate towards right-leaning candidates.
Across all three countries, crime and corruption are key issues influencing voter sentiment. The upcoming elections could sway the direction of gambling policies, affecting international investments and operational strategies within the sector. Industry experts suggest that right-leaning governments might provide a more business-friendly environment, emphasizing lower tax burdens and fostering international investment.
Moving forward, operators and investors in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru will closely watch the election outcomes to adjust their strategies accordingly. The potential shift in political power might offer new opportunities or present unforeseen challenges, underscoring the need for adaptable strategies in the face of regulatory changes. The elections could provide clarity on long-term market trajectories, ultimately shaping the future landscape of Latin America’s gambling industry.
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