Macau’s gaming sector has been thriving, recording a gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP163.1 billion (US$20.3 billion) in the first eight months of 2025. Analysts from Jefferies anticipate that this momentum will carry through September, further accelerating during Golden Week, the popular Chinese national holiday starting on 1 October.
In early September, the first week’s GGR saw a 10% increase compared to the same period last year, a pattern that analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei expect will persist. They attribute this growth to a mix of factors including vibrant entertainment events, the introduction of new properties, increased player incentives, and rising asset values. Additionally, a new demographic of consumers with higher disposable incomes is contributing to this upward trend in spending.
Ling and Pei have a positive outlook, forecasting continued growth in GGR for the remainder of the year. They predict a 13.8% rise in the third quarter, 15.3% in the fourth quarter, and an overall 9.5% increase for 2025. Consequently, Jefferies has updated its full-year forecast from MOP237 billion to MOP248 billion, exceeding the more cautious government estimate of MOP228 billion. For the longer term, they foresee an increase of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Adding to the GGR boost, Citigroup analysts note the impact of performances by marquee celebrities such as Jacky Cheung and Eason Chan, which attract high rollers and significantly enhance GGR. George Choi and Timothy Chau from Citigroup highlight strategic scheduling of major events post-Golden Week, including the NBA China Games at the Venetian Arena and Jackson Wang concerts at Galaxy Arena, which could potentially surpass their October forecast of MOP$23 billion (US$2.86 billion).
Beyond entertainment, the growing popularity of games like baccarat side bets is increasing casino hold rates, according to Citigroup. Their surveys indicate that demand, particularly in the premium mass segment, remains robust since April. As a result, Citigroup has adjusted its 2025 GGR forecast from a 7% to a 10% growth, projecting the full-year figure at MOP248.6 billion. They also revised their 2026 forecast from a 5% growth year-on-year to 7%, estimating a total of MOP265.5 billion.
While optimism is high, some industry experts urge caution. The sustainability of such rapid growth could be challenged by external factors such as changes in regulatory policies or economic fluctuations. There is also concern about the potential saturation of the market if new properties are introduced too quickly.
Despite these warnings, the overall sentiment remains positive. The combination of entertainment, innovative gaming options, and strategic events appears to be a winning formula for Macau. As the city continues to diversify its offerings and attract a broader range of visitors, it solidifies its status as a leading global gaming destination.
4.6/5
