Investment firm CLSA has forecasted a 5% increase in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for 2026, reaching approximately MOP258.43 billion (US$32.3 billion). This optimistic prediction is driven by a stronger renminbi against the US dollar and positive industrial profit indicators in China, according to CLSA analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan. They anticipate daily GGR to average MOP709 million per day, with the gaming sector seeing low-teens growth in the first half of the year.
In contrast, Macau’s government has adopted a more cautious outlook. Recent budget projections released on 21 November estimate GGR at MOP236 billion for the next year. Government officials noted that this conservative figure reflects apprehension amid uncertainties in the global economy.
Earlier in the year, CLSA had projected a total GGR of MOP244.830 billion for 2025, and this has been slightly adjusted upward by 0.4% following the inclusion of actual figures from October. This adjustment underscores the firm’s confidence in the sector’s continued momentum.
As the end of 2025 approaches, Macau is expected to close the year on a positive note. CLSA highlights that the revenue momentum that has been building since June has persisted into the fourth quarter, with GGR through October rising 8% year-on-year to MOP205.43 billion. This suggests a robust recovery, further fueled by seasonal dynamics and a gradual return to pre-pandemic activity levels.
Back in December 2024, Macau authorities had set a GGR target of MOP240 billion for 2025. However, due to a sluggish start to the year and persistent economic challenges, they had to revise this target downwards to MOP228 billion. This recalibration reflects a degree of realism in managing expectations amidst fluctuating market conditions.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley provides another perspective, asserting that Macau’s gaming sector will conclude 2025 on a high note. The firm projects a 16% increase in GGR for the fourth quarter, a growth spurred by the strong performance during the Golden Week holiday. During this period, the city welcomed around 1.14 million visitors, slightly below the government’s target of 1.2 million but significantly surpassing the 2019 total of 974,000 arrivals. This influx of tourists signals a renewed interest in Macau as a preferred destination, likely buoyed by pent-up demand and relaxed travel restrictions.
Analysts agree that while external economic factors continue to loom large, particularly the global economic environment and the health of China’s domestic economy, Macau’s unique position as a gaming hub offers resilience. A stronger renminbi contributes positively to the spending power of mainland Chinese tourists, who constitute a significant portion of Macau’s customer base.
However, caution remains warranted. The global economy is fraught with uncertainties, from geopolitical tensions to fluctuating currency markets. These factors could impact discretionary spending and, by extension, gaming revenues. Macau’s gaming operators are therefore advised to remain agile, adapting to shifts in consumer behaviour and technological advancements in the gaming industry.
In summary, while CLSA’s projections paint an optimistic picture for Macau’s gaming revenue in 2026, with a projected 5% growth, the broader context requires careful navigation. The contrasting outlook from Macau’s government, which adopts a more conservative stance, highlights the need for a balanced approach to forecasting and strategic planning. As stakeholders look towards 2026, the challenge will be to sustain growth while managing the inherent uncertainties of a complex global landscape.
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