In 2022, Finland’s long-standing belief in a single state-owned gambling operator began to crumble. Channelisation rates plummeted below 50%, and Veikkaus’ contributions to the state were halved compared to 2017. The consensus across political parties slowly shifted, acknowledging that the monopoly was unsustainable.
Now, Finland is on the cusp of becoming Europe’s newest licensed gambling market. However, uncertainty looms over the exact timing of this transition to a competitive market. The legislative process, initially aligned with the government’s schedule, is now experiencing delays due to political concerns over advertising, the timing of elections, and regulatory readiness.
As the Finnish Parliament debates the timeline, operators are not waiting idly. They are actively assembling teams, seeking legal advice, and crafting local strategies. The Finnish market may be small by European standards, but its symbolic significance is immense as one of the last Nordic countries to embrace market liberalisation.
The legislative bill is nearing completion. According to Antti Koivula, the Chief Compliance Officer at Hippos ATG, the Finnish Parliament’s Administration Committee concluded its hearings on November 13 and is currently drafting its report. He expects this report by mid-December, after which the plenary readings can proceed swiftly. Independent consultant Jari Vähänen shares this view, stating that Parliament should approve the bill by the end of the year, allowing the law to take effect on January 1, 2026.
Yet, the committee’s schedule suggests otherwise. Pekka Ilmivalta of Nordic Legal has noted that the bill is absent from the committee’s weekly agenda, raising concerns about potential delays. Political factors are at play, with Ilmivalta and Vähänen indicating discussions about postponing the market opening until after Finland’s parliamentary elections in April 2027.
Gambling operators are already anticipating a delay. A representative from a major operator revealed that the government is considering pushing the market opening until after the elections, explaining the unexpected removal of the topic from the committee’s agenda.
The hesitation stems from fears among political decision-makers that gambling marketing might increase significantly, turning public opinion against the reform before the elections. Even supporters of liberalisation prefer to delay any noticeable changes until after the vote.
Most observers predict a brief delay, with the legislative approval taking a few more weeks and the market opening postponed by several months. Researcher Janne Nikkinen from the University of Helsinki suggests that the delay is primarily to address technical issues, not the substance of the law.
Despite the delays, the political consensus on the need for reform remains strong. Koivula notes a broad cross-party agreement on the partial liberalisation of the gambling market. Although there are differences in opinions about advertising and harm prevention, the overall direction is clear.
Ilmivalta explains the rationale: the monopoly’s channelisation is below 50%, government revenue has decreased, and problem gambling is on the rise. The current system is no longer effective. Even Veikkaus, the monopoly itself, has acknowledged the need for change, stating in 2022 that the monopoly should be dismantled.
While legislative consensus is solid, confidence in regulatory readiness is less certain. Koivula candidly admits a lack of confidence in a seamless transition. Although the National Police Board will handle licensing through 2026, he warns that the new authority will require significant staffing, few of whom have gambling sector experience. Nikkinen adds that Finland’s reliance on courts for enforcement is too slow for the fast-paced nature of gambling marketing.
Vähänen is more optimistic, believing that staff will transition from the National Police Board and that technology infrastructure will be ready in 2026. Despite general confidence in Finnish administrative competence, Ilmivalta notes a lack of transparency and dialogue with the industry in preparations.
The major structural weakness remains enforcement. Koivula is blunt in his assessment, foreseeing enforcement challenges due to an insufficient regulatory toolbox for tackling black market operators. Nikkinen highlights legislative gaps such as the absence of payment blocking and DNS blocking, predicting continued leakage to the black market and the likelihood of revisiting the law by 2029 or 2030.
Ilmivalta concurs, acknowledging that some operators will remain outside the regulated market, and the regulator lacks sufficient tools. The introduction of a B2B licensing requirement in 2028 may help but is not a definitive solution.
The Finnish Gambling Association, Rahapeliala, echoes these concerns. CEO Mika Kuismanen stresses that the bill lacks explicit tools to combat the black market and warns that focusing solely on licensed companies will leave unlicensed operators with little incentive to enter the legal market.
Despite regulatory uncertainties, operators maintain a positive outlook. Kuismanen describes the industry sentiment as generally positive, noting the relatively structured and swift legislative process. However, he acknowledges that operators must wait before fully preparing.
Joel Hakamies, general manager for FDJ/Kindred in Finland and Estonia, shares this optimism, viewing the overall situation positively. The main challenge, he notes, is the uncertainty surrounding the timeline, which complicates investment planning.
Hippos ATG is moving ahead swiftly, building a Helsinki-based organization and recruiting experts in various fields. For them, Finnish liberalisation is not just a business opportunity; it supports Finnish and Swedish horse racing, a unique model they offer.
Ilmivalta observes diverse strategies among operators, with some establishing local operations and others operating remotely. He expects innovative approaches to brand-building under advertising constraints.
Advertising rules are a contentious aspect of the reform. The responsible advertising clause has faced criticism for its vagueness, and traditional media, not online channels, remain the primary exposure source for consumers, including children. Operators are divided on the advertising rules’ restrictiveness, with some viewing them as liberal and others perceiving challenges.
While Finland’s market opening might not drastically alter the European landscape, its symbolic significance is noteworthy. As the first Nordic monopoly to dissolve since Sweden in 2019, its success or challenges will influence Norway and other regions.
In the broader European context, Ilmivalta anticipates gradual harmonisation by the 2030s, driven by black-market control and safer gambling initiatives.
Although the Finnish market’s opening is not without its challenges, operators remain optimistic about its potential. As Hakamies puts it, Finland continues to be an attractive gambling market, presenting a significant opportunity. The true test will come in the years following 2027, when Finland must evaluate whether its regulatory framework can achieve the reform’s promises of channelisation and consumer protection. For now, the industry watches and waits, hopeful yet prepared.
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