the recent gambling tax increase, implemented in two stages, has not met the projected financial targets, according to recent figures. The tax, which rose from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and further to 37.8% in January 2026, was anticipated to boost government revenues by €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. However, actual additional revenues for 2025 were only €2 million, with 2026 expected to yield €57 million. The shortfall highlights the complex dynamics of tax policy and gambling regulation in the country.
The fiscal underperformance is partly attributed to a combination of new deposit limits, advertising restrictions, and a natural decline following the revenue surge after Euro 2024. These factors have collectively contracted the gambling sector’s taxable base. There is also a noticeable impact on physical gaming venues, with casino and gaming hall attendance dropping by approximately 11% year-on-year. Several operators in the land-based sector have cited the tax hikes as contributing factors to their operational difficulties, including closures.
Beyond the Dutch borders, Ireland has introduced a new licensing regime under the Gaming and Lotteries (Amendment) Act 2019, which came into force on July 1st. The legislation is intended to bring more regulation to the online betting sector. Currently, the vast majority of online betting—89%—is conducted domestically, but only 35% of the market is regulated, as all iGaming activities remain offshore. To aid operators in adapting to these changes, service providers like Pragmatic Solutions are actively supporting the transition to the new regulatory environment.
Meanwhile, the World Cup has significantly influenced prediction markets, with a surge in activity noted during the tournament. The Democratic Republic of Congo emerged as the most backed non-winning country, while France, Spain, and Portugal were the favorites among bettors. Interestingly, traditional sportsbooks appeared to have fared better than prediction markets, which faced challenges with certain match outcomes.
In related developments, the recent iGB L!VE event highlighted the Africa Summit, a notable gathering of regulators and industry stakeholders from across the continent. The summit addressed critical issues such as sustainable taxation, channelisation, and player protection, and supported initiatives for a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week. The discussion, featuring regulators from Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, aimed to foster collaboration and improve regulatory frameworks across African jurisdictions.
Ed Birkin, who facilitated a panel on taxation at the summit, raised a pertinent question regarding the industry’s response to high tax rates. He questioned whether operators’ ability to absorb or quietly sidestep excessive tax rates in some jurisdictions undermines their arguments against such taxes elsewhere. This issue underscores the ongoing debate about fair and effective taxation within the gambling industry.
Looking forward, the Dutch government is expected to review its fiscal strategy and address the regulatory challenges that have emerged. The discrepancy between anticipated and actual revenue collection may prompt further analysis and adjustment of the tax policy. Additionally, Ireland’s new licensing regime is likely to undergo evaluation to ensure its effectiveness in creating a balanced and competitive online gambling market. As these regulatory frameworks evolve, stakeholders in the gambling industry will be closely monitoring the implications for compliance, market access, and long-term sustainability.
4.3/5
