In Brazil, the first year under newly established gambling regulations has concluded, with Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), acknowledging both achievements and hurdles. As of January 1st, Brazil marked its first anniversary as a regulated online gambling market. During this period, over 80 operators obtained licenses, generating nearly BRL9 billion (approximately $1.7 billion) in tax revenue within the first 11 months, according to the Federal Revenue Service. The full year’s data is pending, but despite the notable fiscal success, the sector faces looming tax increases and potential advertising restrictions, which could complicate its development.
The regulatory framework, established to combat illegal gambling activities and ensure market stability, is under pressure. As Brazil transitioned into 2026, the sector confronted a tax increase, with gaming taxes set to rise to 13% later in the year. These taxes are slated to further increase to 14% in 2027 and 15% in 2028. Additionally, the Senate approved measures in 2025 that may introduce stricter advertising bans, including prohibitions on gambling advertisements during live sports events. These changes await further legislative action.
Jorge emphasizes that for the second year to be deemed successful, three critical elements must be addressed: regulatory stability, a sustainable economic environment for licensed operators, and an effective strategy against the illegal market. The recent announcement of a 15% tax on player deposits, subject to a forthcoming Senate vote, highlights the financial pressures on the legal gambling industry. Jorge argues that these increased tax burdens threaten the economic viability of these companies, potentially eroding their competitiveness.
The challenge of illegal gambling persists, with estimates suggesting that unauthorized operators account for 41% to 51% of the market. This issue is further complicated by an October 2025 prohibition on betting by social welfare recipients. Data from an ANJL-commissioned study indicates that 45% of these beneficiaries might switch to illegal gambling platforms if the ban remains, underscoring the need for informed public policy rather than oversimplified approaches.
Globally, regulators continuously tackle the evolving strategies of illegal gambling operations, and Brazil is no exception. Jorge points out that illegal operators exhibit significant technological prowess, making them difficult to pin down definitively. He states that efforts to curb these activities must be ongoing, with adaptable and coordinated strategies.
Despite these challenges, progress has been noted, particularly through Normative Ordinance No 566, which restricts banks and payment systems from facilitating transactions with illegal gambling entities. Jorge asserts that this significantly impacts the operational capabilities of illicit operators by preventing financial transactions crucial to their operations.
As the market navigates its second year, regulatory authorities, operators, and stakeholders must work collaboratively to address these challenges. The outcome of legislative actions related to tax measures and advertising restrictions will be pivotal in shaping the future of Brazil’s regulated gambling landscape. Continuous monitoring and adaptation to the evolving market conditions will be crucial, ensuring that the legal sector remains competitive and sustainable in the long term.