Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior announced on Friday that prediction markets are deemed illegal in Brazil. This announcement followed a resolution by the National Monetary Council (CMN) clarifying permissible activities within the derivatives market. The resolution explicitly excludes sports events, virtual gaming, and various real or virtual events, including political or cultural, as legitimate underlying assets for derivatives contracts. The ruling marks a continuation of Brazil’s evolving approach to gambling regulation, aimed at safeguarding consumers from financial risks.
The Brazilian telecommunications regulator, Anatel, has already begun enforcing this legal stance by blocking 28 platforms that offered event-based contracts and has pledged to continue vigilant actions against emerging entities. Belchior emphasized the government’s intention to shield Brazilians from financial uncertainties linked to prediction markets. Durigan underscored this by stating that betting on arbitrary occurrences, such as weather events, does not adhere to Brazil’s current legal framework for sports betting and online gaming. “We have already taken action to block platforms to prevent uncontrolled expansion and associated risks to the public,” he highlighted.
Since the official launch of Brazil’s regulated online gambling market in January 2025, more than 39,000 unlicensed betting sites have been blocked, illustrating the government’s proactive stance against illegal gambling operations. Durigan reiterated that prediction markets infringe on the gambling laws ratified by Congress, asserting that the offerings from these platforms do not qualify for regulation. “Blocking actions are necessary due to non-compliance with existing legislation. Betting on whether it will rain tomorrow is not permissible,” he explained.
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, affirmed that Brazil’s regulatory framework is designed to organize and control legal betting activities, specifically excluding non-sports-related betting. “Any other betting types are not permitted under our regulations,” he stated. The government perceives prediction markets as akin to betting but misrepresented as securities, which prompted the CMN to exclude them from authorized market offerings.
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, clarified that while fixed-odds betting remains legal and regulated as a public service, prediction markets were introduced under the guise of derivatives, making them illegal. She stressed that these platforms mimic betting dynamics not encompassed by Law 14.790, which governs fixed-odds and online gambling.
Ricardo Morishita, National Consumer Secretary, reiterated the complete prohibition of prediction markets, noting they are neither covered by Law 14.790 nor the CMN resolution. He advised consumers to engage only with regulated sites identifiable by the bet.br domain to minimize risk. In response to queries about whether companies like Polymarket and Kalshi would be barred from operating in Brazil, Dudena confirmed that any platform offering unauthorized services will face blocking measures unless their offerings align with CMN guidelines.
The government’s firm stance on prediction markets underscores its commitment to maintaining a clear regulatory environment, mitigating risks associated with unregulated gambling forms. As Brazil continues to refine its gambling laws, operators in the market must navigate these regulations carefully to ensure compliance. The next steps involve ongoing monitoring and enforcement by regulatory bodies, with further blocking actions anticipated as the market responds to this regulatory clarification.
4.8/5
