Steve Kornacki, NBC News’ chief data analyst, delivered a keynote address at the Racing and Gaming Conference in Saratoga, New York on Wednesday, where he discussed the evolving landscape of horse racing in the United States. Kornacki’s presentation focused on significant issues such as the concentration of ownership in major races and the continuing decline in foal populations, both of which have contributed to declining television ratings for events like the Triple Crown. His insights come at a time when the racing industry is facing challenges in maintaining its audience and revenue, which has implications for regulatory and market strategies.
Kornacki highlighted the ongoing decrease in the annual handle of horse racing in the U.S., which has dropped from approximately $15 billion in 2003 to around $11.8 billion in the previous year. This decline is mirrored in the viewership for non-Triple Crown events. Notably, last year’s Breeders’ Cup, despite its significant $34 million purse, attracted less than a million viewers on its second day, a sharp drop from the 4.3 million viewers during its debut in 1984. Kornacki attributed part of this decline to the rising popularity of college football, which has been drawing larger audiences and overshadowing horse racing events.
While Kornacki did not offer specific solutions for increasing Breeders’ Cup viewership, he suggested considering scheduling changes to avoid direct competition with major college football games. He noted the potential of moving the event to dates with fewer competing sports broadcasts, such as midweek slots when neither the NFL nor college football are traditionally active.
The Triple Crown itself has largely avoided the significant drops in ratings seen in other races. The Kentucky Derby, for instance, recorded peak viewership of 24.4 million, despite the fact that only three Derby entrants participated in the subsequent Preakness Stakes. However, changes are afoot, as Maryland Governor Wes Moore announced that the Preakness will move back by eight days starting in 2027 to encourage more Derby participants to enter.
In addition to scheduling shifts, Kornacki advocated for expanding wagering options to attract younger audiences, particularly Millennials. He compared potential betting propositions, such as wagers on trainer performance, to popular sports betting prop bets, suggesting that such options could engage a similar demographic of bettors.
The conference also tackled legal and regulatory issues, notably the lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Kalshi, an event prediction market platform, which is accused of illegal gambling under state law. This case highlights ongoing tensions between state and federal regulatory frameworks concerning prediction markets. New York State officials, including Racing and Wagering Committee Chair Carrie Woerner, emphasized the importance of state oversight in regulating these markets.
New York State Gaming Commission Chair Brian O’Dwyer expressed support for the lawsuit, predicting a favorable outcome for the state if the case reaches the Supreme Court. O’Dwyer emphasized the need to protect young consumers from underage betting, an issue compounded by the accessibility of prediction markets.
Another prominent topic at the conference was an investigation by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority into suspicious betting activity linked to horses trained at Maryland’s Fair Hill Training Facility. Trainer Angel Quiroz is under scrutiny following a series of unexpected wins by horses linked to his operation, prompting concerns from bookmakers, particularly in the UK, who have reported significant financial losses due to the betting outcomes.
Quiroz has been charged with a substance violation by the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit, following a positive test for a banned substance in one of his horses. This development adds a layer of complexity to the investigation, highlighting ongoing concerns about compliance and integrity within the horseracing industry.
As the industry grapples with these challenges, stakeholders anticipate further regulatory reviews and potential adjustments to ensure the sustainability and growth of horse racing. The discussions at the Saratoga conference underscore the need for strategic and regulatory adaptations to address declining interest and enhance the sport’s appeal to a broader audience. The next steps will likely involve continued dialogue among regulators, operators, and market participants to find viable solutions for the industry’s pressing issues.
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