The German regulatory body, Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), has launched an investigation into the advertising methods employed by ADI Predictstreet, a prediction market operator supported by Abu Dhabi interests. This investigation, reported by German media outlet RND on Wednesday, addresses the appearance of ADI Predictstreet’s branding on pitch-side billboards during recent FIFA World Cup broadcasts. The concern arises as the operator lacks the necessary gambling licence to both operate and advertise within Germany. This examination holds significance due to its implications for regulatory compliance and market operations within the German jurisdiction.
ADI Predictstreet, operating under a betting intermediary licence granted by Gibraltar in April, has been recognized as FIFA’s official prediction market partner for the World Cup. Despite this endorsement, the operator’s absence of a local German licence has prompted the GGL to scrutinize whether its activities constitute illegal gambling under German law. The advertising in question, prominently visible during World Cup matches, is being assessed for potential breaches of German gambling advertising regulations, which strictly prohibit marketing by unlicensed entities. Notably, ADI Predictstreet’s branding appeared during Germany’s initial game, streamed on the children’s channel KiKa, intensifying regulatory concerns.
In its communication with RND, the GGL indicated that the review would also explore whether German residents are able to access and partake in ADI Predictstreet’s services. Should the investigation substantiate these violations, the regulator might issue cease-and-desist orders not only to the operator but also to associated service providers, including payment processors, web hosting companies, and telecommunications firms.
Addressing the allegations, a spokesperson for ADI Predictstreet asserted to the newspaper that the company does not engage in marketing or advertising targeting Germany specifically. The spokesperson attributed the visibility of its branding during the World Cup to “global sponsorship and media rights arrangements,” asserting that the company did not intentionally aim its campaigns at German consumers. German public broadcaster ZDF, represented by spokesperson Thomas Hagedorn, acknowledged the limitations in controlling on-site advertising, as such visuals are typically under the host broadcaster’s jurisdiction. Hagedorn emphasized that the displayed advertisements conform to Germany’s broadcasting regulations, as outlined in the Media State Treaty.
The legality of prediction markets in Europe is a growing point of contention. A coordinated effort by nine European gambling regulators this week targeted this segment, which remains unregulated across Europe, save for Gibraltar. In many European regions, prediction markets are classified as gambling offerings, contrasting with an ongoing debate in the United States, where they are sometimes viewed as financial instruments. As a result, these markets are prohibited in Germany, with prominent operators like Polymarket and Kalshi facing bans across Europe, including a recent prohibition by Spain’s Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ).
Looking forward, the outcome of the GGL’s investigation will be crucial in determining the regulatory and market landscape for prediction markets in Germany. Depending on the findings, ADI Predictstreet may face significant regulatory sanctions, which could include enforced cessation of their activities in the country. The broader European crackdown on prediction markets indicates that this sector may encounter increasing regulatory challenges, prompting operators to reassess their market strategies and compliance frameworks. As the investigation progresses, stakeholders will be keenly observing the GGL’s actions and their potential ramifications on both domestic and international fronts.
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