In what could mark a significant shift in the gambling landscape, Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of the U.S.-based prediction market platform Kalshi, has announced plans to potentially expand into Brazil by 2026. The company’s interest in the Brazilian market, revealed in an interview with Valor, comes amid ongoing debates over the legal status of prediction markets, which have been a topic of contention in the United States. This potential move is critical as Brazil recently launched its regulated online betting market, which could present both opportunities and regulatory challenges for Kalshi.
Kalshi, headquartered in New York, has gained attention in the gambling sector, particularly in 2025, due to its contracts on significant events. However, its operations have not been without controversy. Critics argue that its expansion into sports-related contracts may contravene state betting laws. Despite these challenges, major U.S. betting companies like DraftKings and FanDuel have ventured into the prediction market space, launching their products earlier this month in collaboration with CME Group.
The Brazilian market has piqued the interest of Lopes Lara, who is originally from Brazil. She considers it a strategic move for Kalshi, particularly after the company’s recent fundraising efforts, which have propelled its valuation to $11 billion. “Following our third fundraising round, we are just at the beginning of our international expansion plans,” Lopes Lara stated. “Brazil holds a personal significance for me, and I am eager for us to establish operations there.”
Currently, the Brazilian prediction market is in its nascent stages, and there is nothing quite like Kalshi’s model present. This presents a potential opportunity for Kalshi, especially as the Brazilian betting market continues to evolve following its official regulation in 2025. However, both the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) and the Brazil Securities Commission have yet to publicly address the concept of prediction markets. In the U.S., similar platforms have faced significant legal scrutiny, with Kalshi embroiled in several court cases against state regulators and tribal entities.
In Nevada, a federal judge recently reversed a previous ruling that had been in Kalshi’s favor, lifting a preliminary injunction that had barred the state from pursuing legal action against the platform for purportedly offering illegal gambling services. This is not an isolated legal battle for Kalshi, as it is also involved in litigation in states such as Connecticut, where it is contesting a cease-and-desist order issued by state regulators. Kalshi maintains that it functions as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), claiming exemption from state-level gambling laws.
The Brazilian regulator, the SPA, is actively working to bolster financial safeguards within the nation’s betting sector. This proactive regulatory stance could pose obstacles to Kalshi’s ambitions, particularly if prediction markets are perceived as falling outside the current legal framework. Furthermore, the Brazilian government is implementing substantial tax hikes on gambling operators, which could also complicate Kalshi’s market entry if prediction markets do not align with taxed activities.
As Kalshi contemplates entering Brazil’s burgeoning market, the company must navigate these regulatory intricacies. This includes assessing the potential for legal challenges and understanding the financial implications of operating in a jurisdiction with evolving betting regulations. The next steps for Kalshi involve further market research and potential dialogue with Brazilian regulators to explore viable pathways for introducing prediction markets.
Moving forward, the timeline for any potential announcement regarding Kalshi’s entry into Brazil is projected for early 2026. This timeframe will allow the company to address any regulatory hurdles and refine its market strategy. While the path to establishing prediction markets in Brazil is fraught with challenges, Kalshi’s interest underscores the growing significance of this segment in the global gambling industry.
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