In November 2025, US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) leadership, Michael Selig, addressed the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry amid intense scrutiny. Selig pledged adherence to legal standards when evaluating Trump Media’s planned prediction market platform, “Truth Predict.”
Truth Social, owned by Trump Media, revealed plans for Truth Predict several weeks earlier. During the Senate hearing, Selig faced pointed questions from Senator Elissa Slotkin about potential pressures to favor Truth Predict. Selig emphasized his commitment to legal procedures, stating that any application submitted would undergo the same scrutiny as others, as long as ethical guidelines are followed.
Selig is Trump’s second nominee for the CFTC chair position, following Brian Quintenz, whose nomination stalled earlier this year. The CFTC plays a crucial role in regulating financial derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936. If confirmed, Selig would become the seventh chair since 2000, with the Senate narrowly advancing his nomination by a 12-11 margin along party lines.
Amidst these developments, leading sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings announced plans to introduce their prediction markets in select states, intensifying the debate on state versus federal regulation of sports event contracts. DraftKings, after acquiring Railbird Exchange, aims to launch soon, while Flutter plans to introduce sports event contracts via FanDuel Predicts in partnership with CME Group. Both companies have parted ways with the American Gaming Association, a trade group opposing prediction markets’ expansion.
Industry expert Tom Johnson from HoldCrunch assessed these market shifts, suggesting an “open playing field” as players like Kalshi and others enter the scene. Concurrently, CME Group announced pending contracts on various sports events, subject to CFTC approval.
During his confirmation, Selig, chief counsel for the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, advocated for regulations that shield consumers from fraud. He was questioned on CFTC Regulation 40.11, which prohibits contracts against public interest. Senator Adam Schiff questioned whether sports event contracts breach existing regulations. Selig deferred to judicial interpretation, acknowledging the complexity of such issues.
Schiff criticized the CFTC’s lack of guidance on sports contracts, emphasizing the need for clarity. Selig, when pressed by Senators Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, reiterated his stance of deferring to courts, highlighting the agency’s potential resource needs.
Booker raised concerns over sports betting scandals and the need for similar oversight in prediction markets, while Kalshi partners with IC360 for market integrity. Congresswoman Dina Titus urged the CFTC to enforce its regulations, arguing that failure to act undermines state rights and consumer protection.
Truth Social, a platform under Trump Media, is set to be the first social media site with a prediction market. Despite criticism from ethics groups over Trump retaining his stake, Truth Social moves ahead. Trump Media’s diluted stake following new share issuance remains under scrutiny, with calls for Trump to divest due to potential foreign influence.
As the Senate prepares to vote, the confirmation of Selig and the future of prediction markets remain pivotal topics, reflecting broader debates on regulatory oversight and market innovation.
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