The Gaming Facility Location Board (GFLB), a five-member panel responsible for evaluating the three applications vying for the available downstate New York casino licenses, is set to reconvene Wednesday night for its last meeting of the month. Although the process had been moving at a rapid pace, it has considerably slowed down in the public eye as the focus has shifted to private deliberations within the GFLB.
Initially, the GFLB met on October 8 for a brief organizational session lasting only 15 minutes. Subsequent meetings have been considerably longer, occurring virtually and open to the public, although audio and video are disabled during the board’s discussions. This ensures that the content of the discussions remains confidential until a final decision is made.
The board was reconstituted this year, with four of its five members new to their roles, bringing a fresh perspective and ensuring neutrality given their lack of ties to the gaming industry. They are working against a December 1 deadline to present their licensing recommendations to the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC). With weekly meetings, including the session this Wednesday, there are at most five meetings left to finalize their recommendations.
The decision-making criteria for potential licensees revolve around four key categories: economic activity and business development, which carry the most weight at 70%; local impact siting, workforce enhancement, and diversity framework, which each account for 10%. Once submitted, the NYSGC has the authority to approve all three licenses, fewer than three, or decide on a later issuance.
The withdrawal of MGM Resorts earlier this month left three applicants competing for the licenses: Bally’s Bronx, Metropolitan Park, and Resorts World NYC. These applicants submitted their revised proposals on October 14, and each project is being scrutinized under the established criteria.
Bally’s, one of the contenders, is concurrently managing significant projects elsewhere, notably in Chicago and Las Vegas. Their $4 billion Bronx proposal is part of their broader strategy to expand their footprint across the United States. Bally’s Chicago project has encountered numerous challenges, including resistance from financiers, and although committed to opening by September 2026, they now project a fourth-quarter opening that year.
In Las Vegas, Bally’s is embarking on an ambitious project adjacent to the construction of the new A’s MLB stadium. Their phased construction plan aims to launch the first phase by spring 2028, alongside the stadium’s opening, though this leaves a narrow window for completing the remaining aspects. Bally’s financial model, which relies heavily on debt and partnerships like that with Gaming and Leisure Properties, remains under scrutiny. Furthermore, their proposal involves a $115 million payment to the Trump Organization if they secure a New York license, a stipulation from a 2023 sales agreement.
Another strong contender, Resorts World, is backed by Genting Berhad. The company is undergoing a capital restructuring by acquiring its subsidiary Genting Malaysia for $1.6 billion. Resorts World has proposed the highest license fee of $600 million and is committed to a tax rate of 56% for slots and 30% for table games. Despite these high stakes, they promise the quickest turnaround, aiming for a market entry by July 2026 and guaranteeing a $2 billion investment in community benefits.
In contrast, Metropolitan Park’s partner, Hard Rock International, has maintained a low profile during the bidding process. With strong financial backing linked to Steve Cohen, owner of the New York Mets, Hard Rock’s financial position appears robust. The recent spotlight on Hard Rock came from a substantial donation to a White House project, a move that hints at its strategic engagements beyond gaming.
Two major state-level considerations could complicate the licensing process. Firstly, the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) has budgetary expectations tied to casino revenue. The MTA projects revenue from casino operations to bridge budget gaps, with expectations of $1.8 billion from 2026 to 2029. Any delay in the licensing process could disrupt these financial plans, potentially exacerbating the state’s existing $34 billion budget shortfall over the next three fiscal years.
Meanwhile, a lawsuit involving the prediction market Kalshi adds another layer of complexity. The NYSGC recently joined other states in sending a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, prompting the company to retaliate with a lawsuit. This legal battle, covering six states including New York, underscores the expanding scope and influence of prediction markets on state revenues, particularly given New York’s prominent position in the online sports betting domain.
This intricate tapestry of financial, regulatory, and legal challenges highlights the high stakes involved in the casino licensing decision. As the GFLB and NYSGC work toward finalizing their decisions, the impact of their choices will resonate across New York’s economic and gaming landscapes. With different stakeholders presenting compelling cases, each pathway carries its own set of risks and rewards. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the future of New York’s gaming industry.
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