Super Group has significantly raised its full-year guidance for both group revenue and adjusted EBITDA after a robust performance in the third quarter of 2025. The company now anticipates that, excluding its US operations, group revenue for the year ending 31 December will reach between $2.13 billion and $2.20 billion. This marks an increase of nearly 8% from the earlier forecast of at least $2.04 billion.
In parallel, the company projects its ex-US group adjusted EBITDA to fall between $550 million and $560 million, compared to the previous range of $470 million to $480 million. The official Q3 results are yet to be finalized by the end of September, but Super Group has preemptively raised its guidance based on its performance analysis up to this point.
Super Group attributes this outperformance to continued strength in sports betting, optimized pricing strategies, more efficient trading operations, and consistent customer engagement in its casino offerings. The operator noted this positive trajectory even during what is typically a quieter seasonal period, showcasing robust operational leverage across its core international markets.
“We have proven the resilience of our business model and demonstrated effective execution,” stated Neal Menashe, CEO of Super Group, in light of the updated guidance. “The strong results from both our sports and casino sectors, coupled with deeper customer engagement and improved margins across crucial markets, allow us to enhance our full-year outlook. We remain optimistic about fulfilling commitments to our shareholders.”
The company has further emphasized the strategic decision to exit the US market. Initially announced in June, the withdrawal is set to conclude in early Q4. Super Group, which provided iGaming services in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, cited “regulatory shifts impacting long-term US expected profitability” as the main driver behind its exit. This follows the cessation of its US sports betting operations a year prior.
For the US business, Super Group is preparing for an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $25 million in 2025, linked to the divestment. Nonetheless, US revenue is projected to exceed $40 million for the year. In the second quarter, North America, including Canadian operations, contributed $199 million to total revenue. However, the US division reported a $5.4 million EBITDA loss.
Despite the challenges in the US, Super Group experienced increased activity in Africa, Europe, and broader North American markets, leading to record revenue in Q2. Total revenue soared 30% year-on-year to $579.4 million for the quarter. Furthermore, the company achieved a record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $156.7 million, representing a 78% increase despite the setbacks in the US market.
Reflecting on the strategic withdrawal from the US, Menashe expressed confidence that this move will strengthen Super Group’s future operations. “While exiting the US was a challenging decision, it underscores our commitment to capital efficiency and sustainable profitability. By concentrating our efforts on scaling our technology on a global scale, Super Group is poised for ongoing profitable growth.”
The US market’s regulatory environment poses challenges for numerous international operators, prompting strategic reassessments. Super Group’s decision reflects a broader trend of companies recalibrating their focus towards more stable and profitable markets. The regulatory landscape in the US can be unpredictable, often necessitating significant investment to maintain compliance, which can erode profitability for companies that are unable to achieve sufficient scale.
On the other hand, some industry analysts argue that the US market, with its vast potential and growing appetite for iGaming, remains an opportunity that could yield considerable returns for those who manage to navigate its complexities effectively. For these operators, establishing a foothold now could be advantageous as the market matures and regulatory frameworks stabilize.
Nonetheless, Super Group’s strategic pivot demonstrates a preference for near-term financial stability over potential long-term gains in the US. By redirecting resources to markets with proven profitability and more predictable regulatory environments, Super Group seeks to leverage its strengths in areas where its operational model can thrive unencumbered by the uncertainties of the US market.
Super Group also continues to enhance its offerings and technological capabilities across its international markets. The focus remains on delivering a seamless and engaging customer experience, which includes exploring innovative ways to integrate technology into its services. This strategy is seen as crucial for maintaining competitive advantage and driving growth in regions with high potential for iGaming expansion.
As the industry evolves, companies like Super Group must weigh the benefits of immediate profitability against the allure of untapped markets. The decision to exit the US underscores the importance of strategic flexibility and the need to adapt to dynamic market conditions. By prioritizing markets with favorable conditions, Super Group aims to sustain its growth trajectory and deliver consistent value to its stakeholders.
In conclusion, while Super Group’s withdrawal from the US market may be viewed as a cautious approach, it aligns with the company’s overarching strategy of ensuring financial health and operational efficiency. As the company continues to expand its footprint across more stable markets, it remains well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the ever-growing global iGaming landscape.
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